DELIMITATION CONSPIRACY
CONGRESS ON THE BLOCK

The BJP engineered Delimitation proposals will spell the death knell of the Congress Party. It will also have the effect of marginalizing the minority community. RAJAN NARAYAN finds out why Congress leaders seem indifferent to the threat to the party.

HAVING SUCCESSFULLY diverted the attention of the squabbling Congress leaders to the Poinguinim by-elections, the Chief Minister, Manohar Parrikar, is silently manipulating to further marginalise the Congress Party and ensure that the Saffron brigade will secure a majority on its own in the next Assembly elections.

If the draft delimitation proposals go through in their present form the Bharatiya Janata Party is virtually assured of securing a minimum of 24 seats and a maximum of 26 seats in the next Assembly elections. The effect of the delimitation in its present form would be the demise and extinction of the Congress Party. The delimitation proposals which are the handy work of the BJP think-tank also aims at reducing the party's dependence on allies, and rank opportunists whose loyalty is suspect.

Cover story....(Goan Observer, September 11-17, 2004)

The delimitation proposals in their present form will see the disappearance of five constituencies, Dargalim, now held by rank opportunist Babu Azgaonkar; Saligao, represented by Wily Willy who is in inclined to sway with the wind;Velim, where the sitting independent MLA, Philip Neri, is all set to defect to the Monserrate camp; Poingunim, which is the grip of the extortionist mercenary Isidore Fernandes and Pale which is represented by BJP hardliner, Dr Suresh Amonkar. Of the five seats which will vanish only one is represented by a hardcore BJP MLA at the moment.

In the place of the five constituencies which will be eliminated, five new constituencies will be created to provide a clear advantage to the saffron brigade. The new constituencies include Sanquelim which replaces Pale and is a stronghold of the BJP. Porvorim a RSS stronghold, has been created specially for the Vishwa Hindu Parishad Chief Subhash Velingkar - Chicalim, a predominantly non-Goan enclave where the BJP’s money power will prevail. Davorlim, which has a large Other Backward Community which is emminenlty purchasable and Guirim which we suspect has been created for the benefit of Tulio D’Souza son-in-law of Dr Wilfred D’Souza, a close collaborator of the BJP.

In the present Legislative Assembly the BJP has 20 seats including Taleigao, represented by Babush Monserrate, and Siolim, represented by Dayanand Mandrekar, both of whom joined the party comparatively recently. The Congress has 15 seats, one down from 16 following the resignation of the Poinguinim MLA, Isidore Fernandes. The two factions of the UGDP have one seat each, the MGP has one seat and the remaining seat is with the Indian Nationalist Congress. One seat is held by an independent candidate supporting the BJP, Filipe Neri.

SAFFRON BRIGADE
If the delimitation proposals go through in their present form, the BJP is assured of at least four more seats from the newly formed constituencies of Porvorim, Sanquelim and Chicalim and Davorlim. In addition the BJP will be a clear favourite to win the Pernem seat. Consequent to the fact that Pernem will be the new reserved constituency which will automatically eliminate Jeetendra Deshprabhu, the Congress spokesperson, from the fray. And if Dr Wilfred D’Souza continues to collaborate and collude and conspire with the saffron brigade the probability is that the Guirim seat will go to Tulio D’Souza. Whether he contests on the BJP ticket or the NCP ticket will be irrelevant.

On the other hand, the BJP engineered realignment of the constituencies will further erode the strength of the Congress in the Legislative Assembly. The Poinguinim constituency which was represented by the Congress MLA is all set to vanish. The merger of Velim with Cuncolim will mean that the Congress has no chance of recovering the seat. Similarly the Congress tally in the North will stand reduced following the proposal for converting Pernem into a reserved seat.

The realignment of the existing constituencies is also likely to work to the advantage of the BJP and will adversely affect the Congress. The Vasco constituency which Arlekar won by a narrow margin in the last Assembly elections has been redrawn to ensure the re election of the BJP President. Similarly the St Andre constituency now represented by the Congress MLA, Silviera has been chopped and changed and tailor-made for the benefit of the prospective BJP candidate, Dhakankar, who is closely related to the Chief Minister Manohar Parrikar. In addition to this, the Cumbarjua constituency has also been modified to ensure the re-election of Pandurang Madkaikar.

Besides the BJP engineered realignment of the constituencies, the Congress fortunes are also threatened by the probable defection of many of its stalwarts. Come the next assembly elections it is almost certain that Anna Harish Zantye, the present Congress MLA from Mayem, Subhash Shirodkar, who represents Shiroda and, if not Pratapsing Rane, at least his son Vishwajeet Rane will desert the sinking Congress ship and will contest on the Lotus symbol.

As a result of the delimitation proposals and the desertion from the Congress camp the BJP is likely to improve its position in North Goa. On the assumption that the new Porvorim constituency will also go to the BJP. Even allowing for the possibility that Babush Monserrate and Pandurang Madkaikar will desert the BJP, the saffron brigade would still be assured of 18 of the 23 seats in the North. The BJP’s gains will be at the expense of the Congress which is expected to lose 6 of the 8 seats which it now holds in the present Legislative Assembly. The Congress is projected to lose Calangute, St Andre, Mayem and Shiroda to the BJP. The St Cruz seat which is now represented by Congress MLA Victoria Fernandes is being coveted by Babush Monserrate. Deshprabhu will be eliminated from the fray if Pernem becomes a reserved constituency.

In the south, the BJP which now has seven seats is likely to consolidate its position further. Besides the seven seats it now controls - Vasco, Fatorda, Margao, Sanvordem, Sanguem, Curchorem and Canacona - the BJP is likely to bag the newly created Chicalim and Davorlim seats as well. By pitting Micky Pacheco against Alex Sequeira the BJP could spring a surprise in Loutolim if there is a three-cornered contest. Under the new delimitation proposals Betalbatim and Majorda, the traditional stronghold of Micky Pacheco, will shift to the Loutolim constituency.

Even without the support of the UGDP MLA Mathany Saldanha, the MGP MLA Sudin Davlikar, the mercenary Babush Monserrate and the independent MLA Filipe Neri the BJP is poised to secure a comfortable majority on its own thanks to the proposed realignment of the constituencies and the almost certain desertions from the Congress ranks. The BJP is likely to secure a minimum of 24 seats and possibly even 26 seats if the Congress and other secular forces in the state do not intervene in time to challenge the delimitation proposals and stop the haemorrhaging from the Congress party.

What is appalling is that the Congress has failed to do anything to stop the BJP conspiracy to secure a majority on its own in the next Legislative Assembly. Though I had exposed the delimitation conspiracy as far back as a year ago when I was in the Herald, the Congress leadership failed to react to the crisis it is facing. The Congress has taken its own time to even challenge the constitution of the delimitation committee which favours the BJP.

According to the rules, the delimitation advisory panel comprises of the two members of parliament from the state and five associate members drawn from the Assembly on the basis of proportionate representation. Till the recent parliamentary polls, the Congress had only one representative in the Advisory committee. By virtue of the fact that both the Members of Parliament were from the BJP and considering the norms of proportionate representation, the Speaker nominated four BJP MLAs as against only one Congress MLA. It is only last week that the CLP formally demanded additional representation in the Delimitation Committee proportionate to its strength in the Legislative Assembly.

There is also reason to suspect that senior leaders in the Congress, including the South Goa MP Churchill Alemao and the GPCC chief Luizinho Faleiro, are part of the conspiracy or at least indifferent to the devastating effect the proposed realignment will have on the Congress party. This is because Manohar Parrikar has very cleverly ensured that the interests of both Churchill Alemao and Luizinho Faleiro are protected. With the transfers of Ponda taluka to the North Goa district Churchill is happy as there is no threat to his kodel.

BJP CONSPIRACY
The Lok Shakti and the NCP hold the key to any plan to thwart the BJP conspiracy to secure an absolute majority on its won. The Lok Shakti could deprive the BJP of at least two seats in South Goa, Fatorda and Margao, which are now controlled by the BJP. Similarly if Dr Wilfred D’Souza returns to the Congress or fights the next elections in association with the Congress, the NCP could win as many as four seats. It will be recalled that in the last assembly elections the NCP lost the Tivim and the Vasco seats by a narrow margin only because of a split in the votes between the Congress and the NCP.

The mercenary extortionist Babush Monserrate could also spoil the BJP party. Babush is reported to be disillusioned and disenchanted with the BJP and is reported to be conspiring to take over the UGDP. With the enormous money power he commands Babush could bag both the Taleigao and the St Cruz seats and engineer the defeat of the BJP in at least two other constituencies. But being a total mercenary, Babush may well make up with Manohar Parrikar and decide to continue to support the BJP.

It is not too late for the Congress to wake up. The delimitation proposals are still in the draft state. The Congress can challenge the delimitation proposals on several counts at the hearing of the Commission scheduled for September 15. One of the accepted norms of delimitation is that constituencies should not extend beyond taluka boundaries. In the case of several proposed realignment constituencies as in the case of Valpoi, Cuncolim, Canacona and Porvorim taluka boundaries have been crossed. The delimitation proposals can be challenged on this ground alone. Moreover the rationale of making Pernem the reserved constituency in the place of Dhargalim can also be challenged.

The biggest anomaly or lacunae in the delimitation proposal is in fact the reservation of seats for Scheduled castes and tribes. The delimitation draft has failed to take into account the fact that Gaudis, Kunbis and Velips who, by the state government’s own admission, account for over 25 per cent of the state’s population have now been reclassified as scheduled tribes. The logical corollary is 25 per cent of the Assembly seats and not just a measly one seat should be reserved for Scheduled castes and tribes. The anomaly has occurred because Gaudis, Kunbis and Velips were notified as scheduled tribes long after the 2001 census which is the basis for the delimitation proposals. It would be in the interest of social justice and the Congress party to demand that the new status of the Gaudis, Kunbis and Velips should be taken into account in the realignment of the constituencies.

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